My last two newsletters discussed the steady profitability of Wynnstay (LSE:WYN) through good times and hard times. When I recently bought at £3.405 I judged there to be a good margin of safety between its intrinsic value and what Mr Market was asking for it. Since then Wynnstay has reported good profits for the year to October 2020 in the face of the Brexit uncertainty, Covid restrictions and the recession. Also Simon Thompson, a writer for Investors Chronicle, has written positive things about the company. So the share has risen to £4.40. You will have to make your own judgement on whether the margin of safety is now sufficient.
(I've recently been approached to run a deep value mutual fund (an OEIC, supervised by the FCA, and open to all investors). A thought occurred to me regarding the gap between me buying Wynnstay and publishing a series of Newsletters about the company and the £1 rise in share price during that time. If I had been running the fund I would have invested other people's money alongside mine at £3.405, or perhaps a little more given the larger sum to invest. Clearly, this is an argument for saying yes to becoming a fund manager. What do you guys think? Would anyone be interested in putting money into a fund where I had sole decision making power on investment selection? Investment management charges, by the way, would be 0.85% of assets under management.)
Wynnstay's Piotroski Analysis
If the firm is profitable and produces positive cash flow it has a capacity to generate funds internally. A positive earnings trend suggests an improvement in the firm’s ability to generate positive future cash flows.
2019: £6.1m/£175m = 3.5%
No Piotroski point scored.
4. Cash flow (before WC investment) greater than profit (so profits are not driven primarily by positive accruals, which may be ‘managed’)? WYN scores a point here.
Leverage, liquidity, and source of funds
Measuring changes in capital structure (debt:equity ratio) and the firm’s ability to meet future debt service obligations.
2019: £3.1m/£170m = 1.8
An improvement therefore another Piotroski point.
2.Has the firm’s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) improved over the past year?
2020: £114m/£58m = 1.97
2019: £121m/£67m = 1.81
Respectable ratios in both years, and an improvement in 2020, therefore one more Piotroski point.
3. Has the firm avoided raising fresh equity capital (e.g. rights issue or placing) in the last year?
It has, so a point is gained here.
2019: £62m/£491m = 12.6%
An improvement, therefore an………………To read more subscribe to my premium newsletter Deep Value Shares – click here http://newsletters.advfn.com/deepvalueshares/subscribe-1
Prof. Glen Arnold
I'm a full-time investor running my portfolio from peaceful Leicestershire countryside. I also happen to be UK´s best selling investment book author and a Financial Times Best selling author.
Originally, I wrote all my ideas out in full on this website. Now that ADVFN publish them they are entitled to display the full version for six months – you can see them here. Thus can I only post the first few paragraphs here for anything younger than six months.
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