In Warren Buffett’s letter published over the weekend he noted the vital importance of identify companies with good or bad economics. He wrote,
“Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal. Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.” (Warren Buffett, 2023)
To help us deal with the identification of businesses with “extraordinary economics” or “good economics”, some tools have been developed by those interested in the strategic positioning of firms. I’ll illustrate two today: (1) Porter’s Five Forces and (2) The TRRACK system (for more detail see The Financial Times Guide to Value Investing)
Porter’s Five Forces applied to Coca Cola
We can use Porter’s Five Forces (developed by Michael Porter of Harvard) to consider the competitive position of Coca-Cola’s industry. Porter emphasises that the average returns to companies in an industry are determined, yes, by the amount of rival between direct competitors in that industry, but also by four other power relationships. It might be that suppliers to that industry have a lot of power allowing them to increase prices and achieve high ROCE; or maybe customers hold a lot of power and so can push down price charged by the industry under consideration.
With that, let’s look at the power relationships in the soft drinks industry:
What might change is social acceptability of sugar and caffeine. But then Coca-Cola has positioned itself to benefit from growth in other types of drinks as well as variants of Coke, e.g. sugar-free.
A price war with Pepsi is a possibility. But this has been tried before to the detriment of both firms, so it may not have a high likelihood.
It’s possible that governments/regulators may clamp down on Coca-Cola given its dominance of markets. But we have yet to see that happen to any great extent.
Applying Porter’s five forces to a UK company in which I own shares – Dewhurst.
Dewhurst mostly manufacture push buttons and various fixtures for lifts. They have a large percentage of the world market.
Warren Buffett wrote a very short letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders this year, it was short because it was a distilled description of key things all us value investors need to keep in mind.
First of all, we are not market-watchers, market-traders or stock-pickers, flitting from share to share because we think the stock market is going to do this or that. No, we are business-pickers. We analyse, in detail, real, living, breathing businesses:
“Our goal…is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers." (Warren Buffett 2023)
There you have it. To be a successful value investor you must learn how to:
Now, I use the knowledge base I’ve built up to invest other people’s money in a Managed Portfolio Service at Henry Spain - people who have lives to get on with and simply cannot spend all day thinking about company analysis. They get to invest in the same shares (or rather I invest it for them) as me. If you are interested in joining us contact Jackie.Tran@henryspain.co.uk.
It is because I’m investing through Henry Spain – and still investing – that I haven’t been able to comment so much recently on good investments I’ve found here at ADVFN.
I’m sorry about that, but I hope to make up for it with my analysis of NatWest which will be in a series of Newsletters here. NatWest is sufficient large that even if a large number of my followers on ADVFN buy its shares that won’t disrupt our plans at Henry Spain.
The next newsletter will discuss Buffett’s tendency to make mistakes – errors are an inevitability for an investor – but nevertheless produce a satisfactory return overall.
I'm a full-time investor running my portfolio. I invest other people's money into the same shares I hold under the Managed Portfolio Service at Henry Spain. Each of my client's individual accounts is invested in roughly the same proportions as my "Model Portfolio" for which we charge 1.2% + VAT per year. If you would like to join us contact Jackie.Tran@henryspain.co.uk
investing is about making the right decisions, not many decisions.