On Tuesday, the organisation charged with keeping an eye on UK government spending, and the economy more widely, published its ideas on where we might be headed.
The economists at OBR assume a three-month lockdown due followed by another three-month period when restrictions are partially lifted (so that the economic impact is halved in Q3). Then in Q4 activity returns to pre-outbreak levels - thus there is no second wave of the virus. They also assume no lasting economic hit.
The main conclusions are that real GDP falls 35% in Q2, but the economy bounces back quickly. Unemployment rises by more than 2m to 10% in Q2 (to 3.4m), but then declines more slowly than GDP reco
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