GLEN ARNOLD INVESTMENTS
  • About
  • Henry Spain
  • Books
    • My Books
    • Other Books
  • Blog
  • Portfolio
    • Buffett-style
    • Modified price earnings ratio
    • Net Current Asset Value
  • Resources
    • glossary of investment terms >
      • A - B
      • C
      • D - E
      • F - G
      • H - I - J - K
      • L - M - N
      • O - P
      • Q - R
      • S
      • T - U - V - W - Y - Z
    • TOP 10 TIPS FOR INVESTORS

The economy and financial markets will (probably) be hit hard

11/2/2022

0 Comments

 
​Pimco's former CEO and chief investment analyst, Mohamed El-Erian (now president of Queens Cambridge and adviser to Allianz) is someone I admire for his ability to observe and synthesise data relating to the complex system that is the world economy.  I've taken excepts from an article he published in the FT last week in which he suggests that because central banks have been slow to react to inflation they now have to tighten even more dramatically.
Fed and ECB still behind the inflation curve, by Mohamed El-Erian
"Central banks risk a pile-up of monetary policy tightening as inflation expectations become more embedded." In other words, he worries that people come to expect high inflation and so factor this into wage rises and price rises; then central bankers will have to be very harsh to get demand out of the economy, e.g. doubling monthly mortgages payments or cost of business loans by raising interest rates.
Already central bankers themselves are very concerned that they have let the inflation genie out of the bottle: "the key message coming out of recent meetings of central bank policymakers is that inflation is higher and more persistent than expected — and the risks to their projections are tilted to an ever greater rate of price rises."
But they realised their mistake too late as their actions so far are "partial at best, still too slow and risks an over-compensation later this year".   Over-compensation I interpret here as meaning much higher interest rates to rid economies of high inflation expectations by hammering demand. Expect large rises in base rates and on long governments, and therefore corporate bonds.
There is a knock-on effect: "this continued go-slow approach [by central bankers to raising interest rates] will force [them] to tighten more this year than they would have had to otherwise" which then will damage the world economy and financial markets as recession fears grow.  Higher rates of return on all financial assets will be demanded, resulting in falling share, for example (my assumption).
Wage-price spiral? "There is a risk that price and wage setting shifts from seeking..To read more subscribe to my premium newsletter Deep Value Shares – click here http://newsletters.advfn.com/deepvalueshares/subscribe-1
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Picture

    Glen Arnold

    I'm a full-time investor running my portfolio. I invest other people's money into the same shares I hold under the Managed Portfolio Service at Henry Spain. Each of my client's individual accounts is invested in roughly the same proportions as my "Model Portfolio" for which we charge 1.2% + VAT per year. If you would like to join us contact [email protected]

     investing is about making the right decisions, not many decisions.

    Categories

    All
    Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)
    Caffyns
    Capital And Counties
    Character Group
    Charlie Munger
    Connect Group
    Daejan-lsedjan
    Dewhurst-lsedwhta
    Highcroft
    Investment-ideas
    Investment Philosophy
    John Templeton
    J Smart
    McCarthy And Stone
    MS International
    Orchard Funding
    Samuel Heath
    Tandem
    TClarke (LSE:CTO)
    Town Centre Securities
    Wynnstay

    Archives

    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020

    RSS Feed

In the short-run, the market is a voting machine – reflecting a voter-registration test that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability – but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine.  Benjamin Graham




  • About
  • Henry Spain
  • Books
    • My Books
    • Other Books
  • Blog
  • Portfolio
    • Buffett-style
    • Modified price earnings ratio
    • Net Current Asset Value
  • Resources
    • glossary of investment terms >
      • A - B
      • C
      • D - E
      • F - G
      • H - I - J - K
      • L - M - N
      • O - P
      • Q - R
      • S
      • T - U - V - W - Y - Z
    • TOP 10 TIPS FOR INVESTORS