GLEN ARNOLD INVESTMENTS
  • About
  • Henry Spain
  • Books
    • My Books
    • Other Books
  • Blog
  • Portfolio
    • Buffett-style
    • Modified price earnings ratio
    • Net Current Asset Value
  • Resources
    • glossary of investment terms >
      • A - B
      • C
      • D - E
      • F - G
      • H - I - J - K
      • L - M - N
      • O - P
      • Q - R
      • S
      • T - U - V - W - Y - Z
    • TOP 10 TIPS FOR INVESTORS

Some key things to look for in accounts

13/10/2021

0 Comments

 
The first is excessive debt.  Ignoring risk in the balance sheet risk can lead to some bad investments. The companies within your portfolio with weak balance sheets - high borrowings - are the ones that will depress portfolio returns when the economy or an industry goes through a rough patch.
Even if they do not go bust, they may find that their bankers force them to make disposals of divisions to bring down their debt levels.  Unfortunately, prospective buyers will often spot they are a forced seller and the price received is reduced to levels below what the company and investor thought they were worth.
Given that an investor has to pay as much attention to avoiding disasters as to picking winners then sidestepping highly geared firms is one way to hold fewer losers.
As well as straight-forward debt you should take into account pension fund deficits and the value of redeemable convertible preference shares where the likelihood of conversion is slim.
Also consider the debt maturity profile: what has to be repaid this year, next year, and so on.
Debt covenants may be onerous for shareholders so check them out.
Some companies select year-end dates when their seasonal cash flows are at a high point.  In these cases, the analyst should look beyond the absolute debt levels at the year-end and consider the debt through the year.
The amount paid in interest for the year may be of some help here – if it seems high relative to the year-end debt and prevailing interest rates then, perhaps the debt levels for much of the year were much higher than those reported at the year-end.
Half-year balance sheets often have raised debt levels so it is worth looking at a few years-worth of those.
As regular readers know I regard Piotroski type analysis of financial distress risk, which focuses particularly on the trend in key accounting variables, as useful for getting a handle on the likelihood of the company struggling.
I’m not saying that I will never own a company with a weakened balance sheet – look at Smiths News - but that I will do so with his eyes open and then pay special attention to its progress (I’m expecting Smiths News to reduce its debt dramatically over the next 12 months given its great cash flow).
Cash generation
Will the business genera
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Picture

    Glen Arnold

    I'm a full-time investor running my portfolio. I invest other people's money into the same shares I hold under the Managed Portfolio Service at Henry Spain. Each of my client's individual accounts is invested in roughly the same proportions as my "Model Portfolio" for which we charge 1.2% + VAT per year. If you would like to join us contact [email protected]

     investing is about making the right decisions, not many decisions.

    Categories

    All
    Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)
    Caffyns
    Capital And Counties
    Character Group
    Charlie Munger
    Connect Group
    Daejan-lsedjan
    Dewhurst-lsedwhta
    Highcroft
    Investment-ideas
    Investment Philosophy
    John Templeton
    J Smart
    McCarthy And Stone
    MS International
    Orchard Funding
    Samuel Heath
    Tandem
    TClarke (LSE:CTO)
    Town Centre Securities
    Wynnstay

    Archives

    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020

    RSS Feed

In the short-run, the market is a voting machine – reflecting a voter-registration test that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability – but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine.  Benjamin Graham




  • About
  • Henry Spain
  • Books
    • My Books
    • Other Books
  • Blog
  • Portfolio
    • Buffett-style
    • Modified price earnings ratio
    • Net Current Asset Value
  • Resources
    • glossary of investment terms >
      • A - B
      • C
      • D - E
      • F - G
      • H - I - J - K
      • L - M - N
      • O - P
      • Q - R
      • S
      • T - U - V - W - Y - Z
    • TOP 10 TIPS FOR INVESTORS