While value investors wait for the dust to settle we might want to ponder the thoughts of some experienced investors on market ups and downs. By dust to settle I mean understanding the new economic/business environment we are in. There are new rules on government help, disturbed demand patterns, interrupted supply chains, psychological trauma.
No one knows where all this is going to end up, but in the new world there will be a new set of strong players and weak players in markets, there will be companies with intrinsic value significantly higher than market price, and there will be companies with dangerously weak market positions and balance sheets. But until the macroeconomic and government counteraction fog has cleared we'll have great difficulty knowing which companies are bargains.
We have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist.
Warren Buffett (B.H. 1994)
One of the ablest investment men I have ever known told me many years ago that in the stock market a good nervous system is even more important than a good head
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