Following a strict caution-first value investing approach I sold a lot of shares before and during the first Covid wave. The pile of cash was very useful later in 2020 and 2021. The shares bought in those years have generally risen nicely – see first table.
Since the start of 2022 I’ve sold out of a number of companies so as to have about one-third of the portfolio in cash – a comfort in these troubled times with potential for inflation-induced or war-induced recessions (see newsletters written 3rd – 16th February). The majority of the cash is expected to be invested in property abroad to give our family more options in a Putin-crazed world, but a goodly proportion will be looking for a home in deep value shares in a period of extreme flux. A list of all the shares I bought in the crisis (Newsletters published at the time of each purchase set out my rationale for buying) Company Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31.3.22 Price 31 .3.22 Return to 31.3.22 Smiths News 18.3.20 £0.151 1.15p £0.338 131% Character 5.6.20 £2.52 20p £5.70 134% McCarthy & S 1.10.20 £0.718 0 Sold 7 Dec 2020 £1.185 65% Cap&Counties 6.11.20 £1.032 0 Sold 19 Aug 2021 £1.743 69% Dewhurst “A”11.11.20 £5.94 23.25p £7.00 22% MS Inter 16.12.20 £1.292 10p £2.60 109% Wynnstay 29.12.20 £3.405 15p Sold 24.3.21 – 3.2.22 £5.58 68% Lloyds Bank12.3.21 £0.4169 1.24p £0.4708 16% J Smart18.3.21 & 24.3.21 £1.253 3.22p Sold 7 Feb 2022 £1.575 28% Fletcher KingFeb20–May21 £0.3265 0.5p Sold Sept 2021 – Feb 2022 £0.40 24% Orchard Funding 7.6.21 £0.568 3p £0.52 -3% Caffyns 22.6.21 £4.65 7.5p £5.00 9% Highcroft 22.7.21 £8.75 22p £9.50 11% Town Centre Sec 10.8.21 £1.426 1.75p Sold 2 Feb 2022 £1.581 12% bp 26.1.22 £4.006 4.1595p £3.78 -5% AVERAGE 46% Longer run performance Nine years ago that I left a tenured professorship to concentrate on investment. Back then the FTSE 100 was around 6,600. It is now 7,550 – a slow rise. In addition, there have been dividends of around 3% per year. I believe the numbers in the tables below show that I have outperformed, which is quite a relief given the salary and security sacrifice I made nine years ago. The tables display the results (so far) of all the shares bought for the portfolios I’ve been writing about in my newsletters. The comments I made at the time explaining the rationale for each investment are available for you to read in older newsletters - there is nowhere for me to hide from my appraisals I made three, four or seven years ago – all the errors of omission and commission are there in broad daylight. I present the returns after taking the hit on broker costs, stamp duty and bid/offer spread. (Some of you have joined us recently so, in case you are not familiar with them, I briefly describe the criteria for my portfolios following the portfolio performance tables.) The 2013 Net Current Asset Value, NCAV, portfolio Company Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 French Con. 25.7.13 £0.3047 zero Sold July 2015 £0.4378 44% Caledonian T 25.7.13 £0.70 zero Sold April 2020 for £1.391 99% Fletcher King 6.8.13 £0.30 14.25p Sold June 2016 for 46p 101% Northamber 22.8.13 £0.287 1.6p Sold Oct 2016 £0.303 11% Titon 5.9.13 £0.379 6.5p Sold May 2016 £1.06 197% Mallett 12.11.13 £0.7682 12.7p Sold Nov 2014 £0.60 -5% AVERAGE 75% The 2014 NCAV portfolio Company Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 Holders Tech 10.10.14 & 3.11.14 £0.47 1p Sold March 2017 £0.33 -28% Airea 4.11.14 £0.1195 0.9p Sold Sept 2016 £0.309 166% Northamber 17.11.14 £0.4265 0.7p Sold Oct 2016 £0.303 -27% Caledonian T 30.12.14 £1.39 zero Sold April 2020 £1.391 0 AVERAGE 28% The 2015 NCAV portfolio Company Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 PV Crystalox 15.1.15 £0.122 zero Sold Dec 2016 £0.237 94% Arden Partners 1.9.15 £0.422 1p Sold May 2018 £0.364 -11% Northamber 4.9.15 £0.443 0.4p Sold Dec 2016 £0.303 -31% AVERAGE 17% The Buffett-style portfolio This type of share is rarer than the others, and so I combine all years. Company Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 Dewhurst 9.4.14 £3.18 70.5p Sold February 2020 £7.217 149% MS International 9.10.19 £1.723 13.50p £2.60 59% Character 20.1.20 & 5.6.20 £2.811 28p £5.70 113% Dewhurst 11.11.20 £5.94 23.25p £7.00 22% MS International 16.12.20 £1.292 10p £2.60 109% AVERAGE 90% (I bought some more of Dewhurst in June 2014 at £3.11, December 2014 at £3.75, November 2017 at £5.46, February 2019 at £5.54 and April 2019 at £5.64. These were sold Feb 2020). Modified price earnings ratio portfolio 2015/16 Company Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 Haynes 11.2.15 £1.159 33.5p Sold 2.10.19 £2.9175 181% AGA 11.3.15 £1.002 zero Taken over June 2015 £1.456 45% Hogg Robinson 10.4.15 £0.4709 2.37p Sold June 2016 £0.656 44% MS International 3.7.15 £1.86 46p £2.60 65% BHP Billiton 24.9.15 £10.43 127p Sold May 2018 £16.90 74% TClarke 5.11.15 £0.7916 13.61p Sold Feb 2020 £1.1215 59% Premier Farnell 8.4.16 £1.222 3.6p Taken over 20.6.16 £1.632 36% AVERAGE 72% The AGA holding was doubled 30 April 2015 at a price of £0.9466. Modified price earnings ratio portfolio 2017 Company Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 Braemar 28.6.17 £2.848 20p Sold June 2018 £2.639 0% Caffyns 10.8.17 £5.012 52.5p Sold July 2020 £2.389 -42% Connect/Smiths News 27.9.17 £1.046 11.95p £0.338 -56% MS International 14.11.17 £1.84 30p £2.60 58% AVERAGE -10% The 2017/18/19 NCAV portfolio Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 Caledonian Trust 7.11.17 £1.23 zero Sold April 2020 £1.391 13% J Smart 30.1.19 £1.13 4.14p Sold Mar/Apr 2020 £1.101 1% Northamber 6.12.19 £0.504 0.3p Sold Mar 2020 £0.5717 14% AVERAGE 9% More Caledonian Trust shares bought in February 2019 at £2.29. More J Smart bought 30.4.19 at £1.16 The 2018/2019 modified price-earnings ratio portfolio Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 Connect/Smiths News 14.6.18 £0.285 5.25p £0.338 37% N Brown 17.8.18 £1.42 9.93p Sold Sept 2021 £0.557 -54% Spaceandpeople 31.10.18 £0.224 0.5p Sold Dec 2020 £0.128 -43% Tandem 2.4.19 £1.59 9.49p Sold Aug 2020 £3.707 139% MS International 6.6.19 £2.22 20p £2.60 26% Character 25.10.19 £3.506 33p £5.70 72% AVERAGE 30% More Connect Group shares bought in February 2019 at 40.86p, March 2019 at 38.29p and May 2019 at 39p. More N Brown bought May 2019 at £1.30. The 2020/21/22 modified price-earnings ratio portfolio Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 Wynnstay 7.1.20 & 29.12.20 £3.33 29p Sold 24Mar 2021 – 3 Feb 2022 £5.58 76% Daejan 5.2.20 £52.90 zero Sold 21 Feb 2020 £79.41 50% Connect/Smiths News 18.3.20 £0.151 1.15p £0.338 131% Lloyds Bank 12.3.21 £0.4169 1.24p £0.4708 16% bp 26.1.22 £4.006 4.1595p £3.78 -5% AVERAGE 54% The 2020/21 NCAV portfolio Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 McCarthy & Stone 1.10.20 £0.718 0 Sold Dec 2020 118.5p 65% Capital & Counties Properties 6.11.20 £1.032 0 Sold 19 Aug 2021 £1.743 69% J Smart 18.3.21 & 24.3.21 £1.253 3.22p Sold 7 Feb 2022 £1.575 28% Fletcher King Feb 20 – May 2021 £0.3265 0.5p Sold Sept 2021 – Feb 2022 £0.40 24% Orchard Funding 7.6.21 £0.568 3p £0.52 -3% Caffyns 22.6.21 £4.65 7.5p £5.00 9% Highcroft 22.7.21 £8.75 22p £9.50 11% Town Centre Securities 10.8.21 £1.426 1.75p Sold 2 Feb 2022 £1.581 12% AVERAGE 27% The return reversal portfolio Purchase date Purchase price Divs to 31 Mar 2022 Price 31 Mar 2022 Return to 31 Mar 2022 Havelock Europa 20.5.15 £0.14609 zero Sold Dec 2016 £0.0915 -37% AVERAGE -37% Brief description of criteria for the portfolios Shares are allocated to portfolios designed around ideas flowing from research conducted when my PhD students and I asked the question “what works in investment?” These investigations were often inspired by the ideas of great investors such as Benjamin Graham. More detail on these ideas is presented in earlier posts (if you put key words into the search box those Newsletters will appear). Net current asset value, NCAV, criteria
Return reversal
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Glen ArnoldI'm a full-time investor running my portfolio. I invest other people's money into the same shares I hold under the Managed Portfolio Service at Henry Spain. Each of my client's individual accounts is invested in roughly the same proportions as my "Model Portfolio" for which we charge 1.2% + VAT per year. If you would like to join us contact Jackie.Tran@henryspain.co.uk investing is about making the right decisions, not many decisions.
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