Performance of my shares

Following a strict caution-first value investing approach I sold a lot of shares before and during the first Covid wave.  The pile of cash was very useful later in 2020 and 2021.  The shares bought in those years have generally risen nicely – see first table.
Since the start of 2022 I’ve sold out of a number of companies so as to have about 40% of the portfolio in cash – a comfort in these troubled times with potential for inflation-induced or war-induced recessions.
Some of the cash is now invested in property abroad to give our family more options in a Putin-crazed world, but a goodly proportion will be looking for a home in deep value shares in a period of extreme flux after the market capitulation. 
A list of all the shares I bought in the Covid-19 crisis
(Newsletters published at the time of each purchase set out my rationale for buying)
Company
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

Smiths News (Connect Group)
18.3.20
 
£0.151
 
1.15p
 
£0.336
 
130%

Character
5.6.20
 
£2.52
 
20p
 
£4.90
 
102%

McCarthy & Stone
1.10.20
 
£0.718
 
0
 
Sold 7 Dec 2020 £1.185
 
65%

Capital & Counties Properties
6.11.20
 
£1.032
 
0
 
Sold 19 Aug 2021 £1.743
 
69%

Dewhurst “A”
11.11.20
 
£5.94
 
23.25p
 
£5.10
 
-10%

MS International
16.12.20
 
£1.292
 
10p
 
Sold 20th Sept 2021 – 7th June 2022. £2.488
 
100%

Wynnstay
29.12.20
 
£3.405
 
15p
 
Sold 24Mar 2021 – 3 Feb 2022 £5.58
 
68%

Lloyds Bank
12.3.21
 
£0.4169
 
2.57p
 
£0.4237
 
8%

J Smart
18.3.21 & 24.3.21
 
£1.253
 
3.22p
 
Sold 7 Feb 2022 £1.575
 
28%

Fletcher King
Feb 2020 – May 2021
 
£0.3265
 
0.5p
 
Sold Sept 2021 – Feb 2022 £0.40
 
24%

Orchard Funding
7.6.21
 
£0.568
 
4p
 
£0.53
 
0%

Caffyns
22.6.21
 
£4.65
 
7.5p
 
£5.00
 
9%

Highcroft
22.7.21
 
£8.75
 
55p
 
£10.30
 
24%

Town Centre Sec
10.8.21
 
£1.426
 
1.75p
 
Sold 2 Feb 2022 £1.581
 
12%

bp
26.1.22
 
£4.006
 
8.5151p
 
£3.87
 
-1%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
42%

Longer run performance
Nine years ago that I left a tenured professorship to concentrate on investment.  Back then the FTSE 100 was around 6,600. It is now 7,150 – a slow rise. In addition, there  have been dividends of around 3% per year.
I believe the numbers in the tables below show that I have outperformed, which is quite a relief given the salary and security sacrifice I made nine years ago.
The tables display the results (so far) of all the purchases I’ve been writing about in my newsletters. The comments I made at the time explaining the rationale for each investment are available for you to read in older newsletters - there is nowhere for me to hide from my appraisals I made three, four or seven years ago – all the errors of omission and commission are there in broad daylight.
I present the returns after taking the hit on broker costs, stamp duty and bid/offer spread.
(Some of you have joined us recently so, in case you are not familiar with them, I briefly describe the criteria for my portfolios following the portfolio performance tables.)
The 2013 Net Current Asset Value, NCAV, portfolio
 Company
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

French Con.
25.7.13
 
£0.3047
 
zero
 
Sold July 2015 £0.4378
 
44%

Caledonian T
25.7.13
 
£0.70
 
zero
 
Sold April 2020 for £1.391
 
99%

Fletcher King
6.8.13
 
£0.30
 
14.25p
 
Sold June 2016 for 46p
 
101%

Northamber
22.8.13
 
£0.287
 
1.6p
 
Sold Oct 2016 £0.303
 
11%

Titon
5.9.13
 
£0.379
 
6.5p
 
Sold May 2016 £1.06
 
197%

Mallett
12.11.13
 
£0.7682
 
12.7p
 
Sold Nov 2014 £0.60
 
-5%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
     75%

 
The 2014 NCAV portfolio
Company
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

Holders Tech
10.10.14 & 3.11.14
 
£0.47
 
1p
 
Sold March 2017 £0.33
 
-28%

Airea
4.11.14
 
£0.1195
 
0.9p
 
Sold Sept 2016 £0.309
 
166%

Northamber
17.11.14
 
£0.4265
 
0.7p
 
Sold Oct 2016 £0.303
 
-27%

Caledonian T
30.12.14
 
£1.39
 
zero
 
Sold April 2020 £1.391
 
0

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
28%

The 2015 NCAV portfolio
 Company
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

PV Crystalox
15.1.15
 
£0.122
 
zero
 
Sold Dec 2016 £0.237
 
94%

Arden Partners
1.9.15
 
£0.422
 
1p
 
Sold May 2018 £0.364
 
-11%

Northamber
4.9.15
 
£0.443
 
0.4p
 
Sold Dec 2016 £0.303
 
-31%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
17%

The Buffett-style portfolio
This type of share is rarer than the others, and so I combine all years.
Company
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

 Dewhurst
9.4.14
 
£3.18
 
70.5p
 
Sold February 2020 £7.217
 
149%

MS International
9.10.19
 
£1.723
 
13.50p
 
Sold 20th Sept 2021 – 7th June 2022. £2.488
 
52%

Character
20.1.20 & 5.6.20
 
£2.811
 
28p
 
£4.90
 
84%

Dewhurst
11.11.20
 
£5.94
 
23.25p
 
£5.10
 
-10%

MS International
16.12.20
 
£1.292
 
10p
 
Sold 20th Sept 2021 – 7th June 2022. £2.488
 
100%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
75%

(I bought some more of Dewhurst in June 2014 at £3.11, December 2014 at £3.75, November 2017 at £5.46, February 2019 at £5.54 and April 2019 at £5.64. These were sold Feb 2020).
Modified price earnings ratio portfolio 2015/16
Company
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

Haynes
11.2.15
 
£1.159
 
33.5p
 
Sold 2.10.19 £2.9175
 
181%

AGA
11.3.15
 
£1.002
 
zero
 
Taken over June 2015 £1.456
 
45%

Hogg Robinson
10.4.15
 
£0.4709
 
2.37p
 
Sold June 2016 £0.656
 
44%

MS International
3.7.15
 
£1.86
 
46p
 
Sold 20th Sept 2021 – 7th June 2022. £2.488
 
58%

BHP Billiton
24.9.15
 
£10.43
 
127p
 
Sold May 2018 £16.90
 
74%

TClarke
5.11.15
 
£0.7916
 
13.61p
 
Sold Feb 2020 £1.1215
 
59%

Premier Farnell
8.4.16
 
£1.222
 
3.6p
 
Taken over 20.6.16  £1.632
 
36%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
71%

The AGA holding was doubled 30 April 2015 at a price of £0.9466.
Modified price earnings ratio portfolio 2017
Company
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

Braemar
28.6.17
 
£2.848
 
20p
 
Sold June 2018
£2.639
 
0%

Caffyns
10.8.17
 
£5.012
 
52.5p
 
Sold July 2020 £2.389
 
-42%

Connect/Smiths News
27.9.17
 
£1.046
 
11.95p
 
£0.336
 
-56%

MS International
14.11.17
 
£1.84
 
30p
 
Sold 20th Sept 2021 – 7th June 2022. £2.488
 
52%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-12%

The 2017/18/19 NCAV portfolio
 
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

Caledonian Trust
7.11.17
 
£1.23
 
zero
 
Sold April 2020  £1.391
 
13%

J Smart
30.1.19
 
£1.13
 
4.14p
 
Sold Mar/Apr 2020 £1.101
 
1%

Northamber
6.12.19
 
£0.504
 
0.3p
 
Sold Mar 2020 £0.5717
 
14%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9%

More Caledonian Trust shares bought in February 2019 at £2.29.
More J Smart bought 30.4.19 at £1.16
The 2018/2019 modified price-earnings ratio portfolio
 
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

Connect/Smiths News
14.6.18
 
£0.285
 
5.25p
 
£0.336
 
36%

N Brown
17.8.18
 
£1.42
 
9.93p
 
Sold Sept 2021 £0.557
 
-54%

Spaceandpeople
31.10.18
 
£0.224
 
0.5p
 
Sold Dec 2020 £0.128
 
-43%

Tandem
2.4.19
 
£1.59
 
9.49p
 
Sold Aug 2020 £3.707
 
139%

MS International
6.6.19
 
£2.22
 
20p
 
Sold 20th Sept 2021 – 7th June 2022. £2.488
 
21%

Character
25.10.19
 
£3.506
 
33p
 
£4.90
 
49%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
25%

More Connect Group shares bought in February 2019 at 40.86p, March 2019 at 38.29p and May 2019 at 39p.
More N Brown bought May 2019 at £1.30.
The 2020/21/22 modified price-earnings ratio portfolio
 
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

Wynnstay
7.1.20  & 29.12.20
 
£3.33
 
29p
 
Sold 24Mar 2021 – 3 Feb 2022 £5.58
 
76%

Daejan
5.2.20
 
£52.90
 
zero
 
Sold 21 Feb 2020 £79.41
 
50%

Connect/Smiths News
18.3.20
 
£0.151
 
1.15p
 
£0.336
 
130%

Lloyds Bank
12.3.21
 
£0.4169
 
2.57p
 
£0.4237
 
8%

bp
26.1.22
 
£4.006
 
8.5151p
 
£3.87
 
-1%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
53%

The 2020/21 NCAV portfolio
 
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

McCarthy & Stone
1.10.20
 
£0.718
 
0
 
Sold Dec 2020 118.5p
 
65%

Capital & Counties Properties
6.11.20
 
£1.032
 
0
 
Sold 19 Aug 2021 £1.743
 
69%

J Smart
18.3.21 & 24.3.21
 
£1.253
 
3.22p
 
Sold 7 Feb 2022 £1.575
 
28%

Fletcher King
Feb 20 – May 2021
 
£0.3265
 
0.5p
 
Sold Sept 2021 – Feb 2022 £0.40
 
24%

Orchard Funding
7.6.21
 
£0.568
 
4p
 
£0.53
 
0%

Caffyns
22.6.21
 
£4.65
 
7.5p
 
£5.00
 
9%

Highcroft
22.7.21
 
£8.75
 
55p
 
£10.30
 
24%

Town Centre Securities
10.8.21
 
£1.426
 
1.75p
 
Sold 2 Feb 2022 £1.581
 
12%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
29%

The return reversal portfolio
 
Purchase date
 
Purchase price
 
Divs to 30 June 2022
 
Price 30 June 2022
 
Return to 30 June 2022

Havelock Europa
20.5.15
 
£0.14609
 
zero
 
Sold Dec 2016 £0.0915
 
-37%

AVERAGE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-37%

Brief description of criteria for the portfolios
Shares are allocated to portfolios designed around ideas flowing from research conducted when my PhD students and I asked the question “what works in investment?”
These investigations were often inspired by the ideas of great investors such as Benjamin Graham.
More detail on these ideas is presented in earlier posts (if you put key words into the search box those Newsletters will appear).
Net current asset value, NCAV, criteria

1. Current asset values are taken from the balance sheet (e.g. inventory, receivables and cash).  From this total are deducted all the liabilities. Long term asset values are usually ignored (counted as zero).  Usually, further deductions are made to reduce inventory and receivable values to give a conservative bias.
2. Companies passing the quantitative test are also assessed qualitatively for business prospects, managerial ability/integrity and business stability.

Modified price earnings ratio criteria

1. A cyclically-adjusted price to earnings ratio (CAPE) significantly below average.  That is, a current share price divided by the earnings per share calculated as an average of eps over the last seven to ten years.
2. A high Piotroski score.  These nine factors indicate whether a company is strengthening its financial position and income flow.
3. Finally, and crucially, the same qualitative criteria as for NCAV investing.

Buffett-style criteria

1. A strong economic franchise,
2. Managers of integrity and talent,
3. Excellent accounting numbers, and
4. A reasonable price.

(There is much more on this in my books The Financial Times Guide to Value Investing, The Great Investors, The Deals of Warren Buffett or Warren Buffett's letters)
Return reversal

1. Rank all shares based on their returns over the past five years. Select only the worst 20% of performers – “the losers”.
2. Examine each loser share using Piotroski criteria. Select only those with a high score.
3. Ensure that the company has a market capitalisation below its net tangible asset value
4. Use the same qualitative screening criteria as for NCAV investing.