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Orchard Funding - is it safe?

15/12/2022

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​I’ll consider Orchard Funding’s financial stability by firstly looking at its vulnerability to financial distress and secondly it propensity to generate cash year by year.
Piotroski analysis
In 2000 Joseph Piotroski published research looking into the question of whether you could take a bunch of value shares and then separate out the strong from the weak using accounting ratios and measures.
The nine factors, taken as a whole, indicate where a company is along the spectrum, ranging from showing great improvements to its financial position at one end to exhibiting increasing financial distress at the other.
Profitability factors
If the firm is profitable and produces positive cash flow it has a capacity to generate funds internally.  A positive earnings trend suggests an improvement in the firm’s ability to generate positive future cash flows.
  1. Positive net income before extraordinary items? Orchard Funding made profits in the year to 31st July 2022 (£1.5m) and so a score of ‘1’ is gained.
  2. Positive cash flow from operations?   Cash generated from operations was £1.9m for 2022. Orchard thus gains a score of ‘1’ for this factor.
  3. Positive change in return on assets employed in the business from the previous year?  Profits in 2022 were almost double those in 2021 so one more Piotroski point here.
  4. Cash flow greater than profit? (so profits are not driven primarily by positive accruals, which may be ‘managed’).  Orchard gains its fourth point here.
Leverage, liquidity, and source of funds
Measuring changes in capital structure (debt:equity ratio) and firm’s ability to meet future debt service obligations.
  1. Change in leverage over one year. Has the firm’s long-term debt reduced relative to its total assets?  I’ll include all borrowings. 2021:  £12.3m/£32.4m = 38%;  2022: £25.5m/£48.8m = 52%.  Debt has increased relative to assets so no Piotroski point.
  2. Has the firm’s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) improved? 2021: £30.0m/£15.8m =  1.9;  2022: £42.1m/£26.1m = 1.6. Orchard took on extra debt to extend its lending. No Piotroski point.
  3. Has the firm avoided raising fresh equity capital (e.g. rights issue or placing) in the last year? Yes, so it gains fifth Piotroski point.
Operating efficiency
  1. Has the gross profit margin improved? Gross profit is a strange concept for a lender. If I take net interest income (interest received less cost of funding) as a percentage of "interest receivable and similar income" then that rose from 85.2% in 2021 to 88.2% in 2022.  Thus a sixth Piotroski point is gained.
  2. Has the ratio of turnover to beginning-of-the-year total assets improved? (This indicates greater efficiency in the use of its assets from either having fewer assets for a given level of sales or raised sales). Using interest receivable plus other trading income plus other net income for turnover. 2021: £4.8m/£29.9m = 16.1%; 2022: £6.6m/.............................
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    Glen Arnold

    I'm a full-time investor running my portfolio. I invest other people's money into the same shares I hold under the Managed Portfolio Service at Henry Spain. Each of my client's individual accounts is invested in roughly the same proportions as my "Model Portfolio" for which we charge 1.2% + VAT per year. If you would like to join us contact [email protected]

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  • About
  • Henry Spain
  • Books
    • My Books
    • Other Books
  • Blog
  • Portfolio
    • Buffett-style
    • Modified price earnings ratio
    • Net Current Asset Value
  • Resources
    • glossary of investment terms >
      • A - B
      • C
      • D - E
      • F - G
      • H - I - J - K
      • L - M - N
      • O - P
      • Q - R
      • S
      • T - U - V - W - Y - Z
    • TOP 10 TIPS FOR INVESTORS