GLEN ARNOLD INVESTMENTS
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Investor impulses, parcels and disconfirming evidence

12/11/2021

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Investors do not buy on impulses or tips:  Invest where you have a competitive advantage based on your ability to analyse a company, not on a wim or tip from a friend, newspaper or broker.
Investors avoid ‘pass-the-parcel’ shares
Shares that have a great deal of upward momentum, which is sustained by people thinking that they can sell out at a higher price because current excitement will keep pushing the share forward (rather than based on fundamental qualities) are to be given a wide berth.
Investors don’t close their minds to disconfirming evidence
Once a share is bought there is a natural human tendency to avoid looking at or ignoring evidence that does not confirm our original investment thesis; we have a psychological aversion to the idea that we made a wrong decision.
But it is important to keep an open mind; to be receptive to disconfirming evidence.
‘Don’t be too stubborn about your views but don’t lose all your conviction. Ideally, your conviction level should be around the 50 per cent level (where 0 per cent equals no conviction and 100 per cent means you are so convinced you would never change your view).’ (Anthony Bolton)
Investors accept cr
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    Prof. Glen Arnold

    I'm a full-time investor running my portfolio from peaceful Leicestershire countryside. I also happen to be UK´s best selling investment book author and a Financial Times Best selling author.

    Originally, I wrote all my ideas out in full on this website. Now that ADVFN publish them they are entitled to display the full version for six months – you can see them here. Thus can I only post the first few paragraphs here for anything younger than six months.

    I write 2 to 3 newsletters per week - investing is about making the right decisions, not many decisions.

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In the short-run, the market is a voting machine – reflecting a voter-registration test that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability – but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine.  Benjamin Graham




  • About
  • Newsletter
  • Books
    • My Books
    • Other Books
  • Blog
  • Portfolio
    • Buffett-style
    • Modified price earnings ratio
    • Net Current Asset Value
  • Resources
    • glossary of investment terms >
      • A - B
      • C
      • D - E
      • F - G
      • H - I - J - K
      • L - M - N
      • O - P
      • Q - R
      • S
      • T - U - V - W - Y - Z
    • TOP 10 TIPS FOR INVESTORS