Connect shares (LSE:CNCT) have fallen more than most. While it was falling I examined three factors, looking for reassurance that it will be able to ride out the storm:
If banks were harsh the company can now turn to alternative sources (e.g. commercial paper sales direct to the BoE).
I could be wrong on the willingness of banks to treat established customers very leniently. But even if I am wrong the factors below mean that Connect probably will not breach its banking covenants in the first place.
Amazon, Ocado, etc., can’t cope and are turning away customers for want of distribution capability. Tuffnells has an underused distribution network.
Clearly this is a business opportunity for Tuffnells to greatly increase turnover and raise prices.
Distribution is one of the Government mandated essential services along with nursing, supermarkets and utilities.
The jury is still out on whether the management of the depots has improved.
It turns out that newsagents are classed along with pharmacies and supermarkets as essential, thus they can stay open. People need news now more than ever. The cash-cow that is Smiths News continues.
Having done that research a fourth factor came as a very pleasant surprise, tipping me over the edge into buying the shares - the company issued a steady-as-she-goes trading update.
In these conditions an expectation of profit falls of around 10% in the year to end August strikes me as wonderful, especially after the shares had more than halved in a few days. There won’t be many companies that can say they still make over £18m after tax this year and be standing on market capitalisation of £37m (246m shares x £0.151).
More on the Trading Update
According to Wednesday’s update Connect has a “critical role in the UK's news supply chain” and it is “an essential supply partner for many of our freight customers” which leads to “Core trading across the Group remain[ing] relatively robust despite the considerable disruption to the UK economy at present. Both Smiths News and Tuffnells are currently trading in line with expectations”.
Current expectations of the three analysts covering Connect are dividends of 1p in 2020 and 1.033p in 2021. That would give the shares a dividend yield at my average b………………To read more subscribe to my premium newsletter Deep Value Shares – click here http://newsletters.advfn.com/deepvalueshares/subscribe-1
I'm a full-time investor running my portfolio. I invest other people's money into the same shares I hold under the Managed Portfolio Service at Henry Spain. Each of my client's individual accounts is invested in roughly the same proportions as my "Model Portfolio" for which we charge 1.2% + VAT per year. If you would like to join us contact Jackie.Tran@henryspain.co.uk
investing is about making the right decisions, not many decisions.